Certainty: 2 German attack on Ancona beaten off with the aid of Manuel's ally Aldruda Frangipane.
Certainty: 2 Nur al-Din received a large sum to prevent an attack on the Armenian kingdom. Nur al-Din of Aleppo crossed the Syrian passes while he was on his way to conquer Armenia. However the ruler of Armenia offered him 50,000 dinars in exchange for his country: Nur al-Din accepted the deal
Certainty: 2 Nur al-Din took Mleh into his service, gave him troops, & took cities from the Byzantines. Mleh, the ruler of Cilician Armenia, entered the service of Nur al-Din of Aleppo, who assisted him with a contingent of soldiers. Mleh entered Adana, Tarsus and Mopsuestia and took these towns from the Byzantine emperor; he then sent to Nur al-Din a huge quantity of booty together with thirty Greek notables
Certainty: 2 Common front of eastern enemies brought Manuel from the west to Philadelphia: his threats worked. Kilic Arslan II, the Seljuk sultan of Ikonion and Shahan-Shah his brother, Mleh, the ruler of Cilician Armenia and Nur al-Din of Aleppo joined in a common plan to attack Byzantium, bringing Manuel I from the west to Philadelphia to face them. Manuel wrote censoriously to Kilic Arslan, asking why he had suddenly attacked. The reply was that the caliph disapproved of friendship with the Byzantines. With a second embasy Manuel threatened to attack in 15 days. The enemy, terrified, began peace negotiations, allowing Manuel to return to the capital to claim a bloodless victory
Certainty: 2 Encouraged by Manuel's bloodless victory, the rulers of Antioch & Jerusalem did damage to Aleppo.
Certainty: 2 Aaron the akolouthos was blinded for devotion to the devil.
Certainty: 0 Manuel himself (not the asekretis) composed the speech for the silention.